With the Copenhagen Summit on Climate Change opening today, there was a stark warning from the Danish Climate Minister, Connie Hedegaard, that the political will ‘will never be stronger’.
I think this is a correct analysis.
With the prospects of a global economy growing much slower than we’ve been used to and with increased public questioning of the science behind climate change it is vital that governments maximise the opportunities presented at Copenhagen. If they don’t, it may well be too late – not just for the planet but politically.
With over 192 nations in attendance, the time for scheduled for structured negotiating is only six days. Based on eight hour days (I’m sure they will go for longer) that leaves about 15 minutes per nation for them to have their say. It is therefore a tall order for them to get the agreement that many hope for.
The main challenge is to get the big hitters, such as the US, Russia and China committed to go beyond carbon reduction targets and focus on how they can also mitigate the impact of climate change and encourage new innovations.
If the politicians don’t emerge triumphant from Copenhagen, any by triumphant I mean agreeing a solution that goes beyond political horse-trading and limited targets, there will be little incentive for business and individuals to change their behaviour.
In addition, if an agreement isn’t reached that balances both the need to reduce the emissions of nation states (and by that we mean business and citizens that live in those states) as well as new and more creative solutions to addressing climate change, the green narrative that has dominated for the last few years may change.
2010 could well be the year that public scepticism about climate change reaches a critical mass.
If this is the case, it will make it even harder for governments and businesses to make the changes required, especially if those changes have the potential to dampen economic activity.