This morning, we launched our Hothouse Foresight 2010 research with a breakfast salon at the Royal Society of Arts, London.
We had a prestigious line-up of speakers including Adam Boulton, political editor, Sky News; Paul Mason, economics editor, BBC Newsnight; Bronwen Maddox, chief correspondent, The Times; and Professor James Woudhuysen. Speakers shared their perspectives on the issues and trends likely to shape the coming twelve months and beyond.
Professor James Woudhuysen was the first of the four speakers. He opened with an energetic discourse on the future of innovation. He compared the neglectful track record of the West in terms of R&D and technological innovation compared with that of the investment being seen in the East. Paul Mason took exception to this suggestion, arguing that China is good at scale and implementation but not necessarily innovation.
Paul Mason was next up and focused on the post-crisis global economy. He painted an austere picture whereby the withdrawal of stimulus packages, increases in taxation and reductions in public spending would need to take place in the next couple of years. Inevitably, this will lead to a more dour and bleak global economic environment for a number of years to come, even when taking into account growth projections. He also suggested that this would have a political impact, as we start to see a shift to the right, and often the more extreme right, as politcians seek to capitalise on social unrest.
Adam Boulton talked about the uncertainty surrounding the 2010 general election, both in terms of timing (March, May or June) and outcome. He suggested that whilst the British public is essentially fair, the public may well feel that Gordon has ‘been given a chance’ and that voting him out of office can be done with a clear conscience. He pointed out that the lack of overwhelming warmth to David Cameron, when contrasted with that of Blair 1997, could well work in his favour as he is less likely to disappoint the public to the same degree.
Bronwen Maddox completed our speaker line-up and talked about developments in world affairs likely to shape 2010. Completing a tour of all of the world’s key regions and countries in only fifteen minutes, she suggested that 2010 would be quieter than 2009. She said it would be a year of transition as the world come to terms with the impact of the downturn, Obama pursues his legislative agenda in the US and progress (hopefully) is made on the war in Afghanistan. The US is likely to become more introverted as it addresses it domestic concerns and pulls back from international commitments where possible.
We will be posting our Hothouse Foresight 2010 research, which looks at some of the trends likely to shape the next twelve months, and videos from today’s session on our website this coming Monday.